![]() ![]() The former president has 56.6% support in national primary polls, according to a RealClearPolitics moving average of surveys. ![]() Trump's improved chances come as he skipped a GOP primary debate for a second time, instead giving a speech Wednesday night directed at Michigan auto workers in which he suggested that none of the debaters deserved to become his vice president. The clientele for political gambling tends to be right-leaning and male, and betting markets can get caught up in narratives as well as skewed by unreliable polls, one expert in political gambling and prediction markets told MarketWatch last year. To be sure, betting markets got last year's midterm elections wrong and can be poor predictors for several reasons. Newsom's chances are ahead of those for Trump's rivals for the Republican nomination, such as Florida Gov. Gavin Newsom of California with an 8% chance of getting elected president, even though he has ruled out a White House run repeatedly. ![]() That's illustrated in the below chart, which also shows Democratic Gov. But betting markets got last year's midterm elections wrong and can be poor predictors for several reasonsÄonald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election appear to be improving this week, as betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics put them just ahead of President Joe Biden's for the first time this year - at 32%, compared with 30%. ![]()
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